Energy

SAF production is expected to climb to 2.7 billion litres in 2025. (Image source: Canva)

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced updated projections for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production, reflecting progress in the aviation sector's shift towards greener alternatives while acknowledging challenges in scaling output.

In 2024, SAF production is expected to double to 1 million tonnes, or 1.3 billion litres, compared to 2023 levels. Despite this growth, SAF will account for just 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel capacity. These figures fall short of earlier forecasts that had anticipated SAF production reaching 1.5 million tonnes (1.9 billion litres) in 2024. The lower-than-expected output is attributed to delays in ramping up key SAF facilities in the United States, which have now postponed their timelines to the first half of 2025.

Looking ahead, SAF production is expected to climb to 2.1 million tonnes (2.7 billion litres) in 2025, representing 0.7% of jet fuel production and 13% of global renewable fuel capacity. The adjusted projections underline the pressing need for greater investment and policy support to accelerate SAF adoption, a critical component in the aviation industry's efforts to achieve carbon neutrality.

Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 will require a monumental shift in renewable fuel production infrastructure, according to IATA’s analysis. To meet this goal, the industry will need to establish between 3,000 and 6,500 new renewable fuel plants, which will also cater to sectors beyond aviation by producing renewable diesel and other fuels.

The investment required to construct these facilities averages approximately US$128bn annually over the next 30 years. While substantial, this figure is notably lower than the US$280bn invested annually in solar and wind energy markets from 2004 to 2022, highlighting the comparative feasibility of scaling renewable fuel production to support aviation’s decarbonisation efforts.

“SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly. Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas. And investors in new generation fuel producers seem to be waiting for guarantees of easy money before going full throttle. With airlines, the core of the value chain, earning just a 3.6% net margin, profitability expectations for SAF investors need to be slow and steady, not fast and furious. But make no mistake that airlines are eager to buy SAF and there is money to be made by investors and companies who see the long-term future of decarbonisation. Governments can accelerate progress by winding down fossil fuel production subsidies and replacing them with strategic production incentives and clear policies supporting a future built on renewable energies, including SAF,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

“Governments must quickly deliver concrete policy incentives to rapidly accelerate renewable energy production. There is already a model to follow with the transition to wind and solar power. The good news is that the energy transition, which includes SAF, will need less than half the annual investments that realising wind and solar production at scale required. And a good portion of the needed funding could be realised by redirecting a portion of the retrograde subsidies that governments give to the fossil fuel industry,” said Walsh.

The new collaboration will provide a wider offering to customers across the MEA region. (Image source: Jubaili Bros)

Jubaili Bros, a leading supplier of power generation solutions and services, has collaborated with MWM, a provider of sustainable gas gensets, to provide large, gas-fuelled electrical power solutions across the Middle East and Africa

“We are excited to partner with Jubaili Bros, a trusted and respected leader in the power generation market,” said Rene Ludvik, commercial director of MWM. “This new cooperation will provide customers even better access to MWM’s highly efficient gensets and services throughout the life of our products.”

The partnership will be built around MWM’s expertise in gas engine and gas genset technology as well as the extensive engineering and aftersales network. As a result of the collaboration, Jubaili Bros will offer MWM gas generators with 42% and above efficiencies ranging from 400 to 4,500kW electrical that are suitable for a range of applications.

“We are delighted to join forces with MWM, a world-renowned leader in gas engine and genset technology, to offer our customers in the region best-in-class gas generators allied to our leading aftersales experience,” added Marcus Schumacher, group CEO of Jubaili Bros. “We have a long history of providing reliable and customised power solutions to our customers, and we are confident that this collaboration will enable us to meet the growing demand for gas powered generators in the region.”

A hydrogen fuel cell. (Image source: Canva)

The adoption of stationary fuel cells is accelerating, driven by rising energy demands, concerns over grid reliability, and a global push for cleaner alternatives to fossil fuels.

IDTechEx's latest report, Stationary Fuel Cell Markets 2025-2035: Technologies, Players & Forecasts, delves into the potential of this evolving market, analysing different fuel cell technologies, their applications, and challenges.

Meeting growing energy needs

Global energy consumption continues to climb, fuelled by economic growth and power-intensive technologies. In 2023 alone, energy use increased by 2%, raising concerns over energy security and the need for sustainable power solutions. Stationary fuel cells, which generate electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen, are gaining traction as a reliable energy source. They can operate independently or as part of larger fuel cell stacks, offering scalable solutions for backup power and continuous operations in areas prone to grid instability or limited power access.

Fuel cell technologies and applications

Fuel cell systems vary by operating temperature, efficiency, and use cases. High-temperature systems, such as solid oxide (SOFC) and molten carbonate fuel cells, excel in industrial applications due to their ability to reform hydrogen carrier fuels and operate in combined heat and power (CHP) modes. These systems provide flexibility in fuel sourcing, including natural gas and biogas, though they still face sustainability challenges.

Medium-temperature systems, like phosphoric acid and alkaline fuel cells, operate up to 200°C and are often used in specific industrial and commercial settings. However, these require greater maintenance due to liquid electrolytes and higher operating costs.

Proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs), which operate at lower temperatures below 100°C, are noted for their efficiency, compact size, and responsiveness to power demand changes. These qualities make PEMFCs particularly suitable for backup power systems and transportable applications.

Challenges in hydrogen sourcing

Hydrogen availability and purity remain key hurdles for stationary fuel cell adoption. While PEMFCs require high-purity hydrogen and are sensitive to impurities, high-temperature systems like SOFCs offer greater fuel flexibility, supporting alternative fuels like natural gas. However, the lack of a robust hydrogen infrastructure and the cost of green hydrogen remain barriers to widespread adoption.

Market outlook

With global energy consumption projected to grow by 3.4% annually through 2026, the demand for stationary fuel cells is set to expand. IDTechEx forecasts that annual commercial demand for stationary fuel cells will exceed 1.9 GW by 2035, driven by applications in residential, industrial, and utility sectors. Although over 80% of global energy is still derived from fossil fuels, the increasing emphasis on sustainability and renewable energy offers significant growth opportunities for fuel cell technologies.

Stationary fuel cells, particularly PEMFCs and SOFCs, are positioned to lead this market transformation, provided advances in hydrogen production and infrastructure can meet the growing demand for cleaner energy solutions.

Lara Sidawi Moore addressing the conference. (Image source: Energy Intelligence)

The geopolitics and energy transition nexus was the focus of the Energy Intelligence Forum which took place from 25-27 November in London

The Forum provided a platform for energy leaders to debate and shape sustainable solutions to the energy challenges of the 21st century and explore collaborative solutions for industrial decarbonisation. Energy leaders explored the potential impact of industrial policy, geopolitical competition, and Trump’s election on these industries.

The event highlighted the urgent need for innovation in carbon removal technologies to mitigate rising greenhouse gas emissions. Temperatures will rise by 1.5°C in the next 10 to 15 years, according to Dr. Hoesung Lee, the sixth chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and winner of Energy Intelligence’s Energy Economist of the Year. “Global emissions must peak by 2025, but this won’t happen.”

Efforts to decarbonise the industry were a key focus, with hydrogen, electrification, carbon capture, and nuclear are all competing to be the top solution for energy-intensive sectors like steel, chemicals, shipping, and aviation. According to Anne-Laure de Chammard, executive board member at Siemens Energy, there is a still a long way to go on this front. “Sectors with clear targets and incentives are progressing faster than those without clear signals,” she noted, adding that small modular reactors can play a key, timely, role to provide electricity for the expanding demand of data centres around the world. “You can build one in roughly one year.”

BP Plc CEO Murray Auchincloss was hopeful that that onshore wind developments in the US could be accelerated, following promises from the President-Elect to curb regulations.

“We think it [the Trump presidency] is a strong chance to help the US get back to putting construction forward, getting regulatory reform in place, and getting faster permitting and really allowing construction to move forward. That's what we're most hopeful for, because the US has been struggling in that space,” Auchincloss commented.

Darren Woods, chairman & CEO of ExxonMobil, was awarded Energy Intelligence’s 2024 Energy Executive of the Year for leadership in growth and innovation, including the acquisition of Texas-based oil and gas exploration and production company Pioneer, and advancements in carbon capture, hydrogen, and lithium.

TotalEnergies was awarded the 2024 Energy Innovation Award in recognition of its commitment to the energy transition, having invested over US$70bn in low-carbon initiatives since 2015 and ambitiously working to reduce Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions.

Lara Sidawi Moore, deputy CEO and chairperson of the Executive Committee of Energy Intelligence commented, “Our choices now, we hope, will help to craft a unified framework to provide energy security, stability, and prosperity to future generations. We urgently need greater foresight, collaboration, and determination to help drive the world toward a more sustainable, resilient, and secure energy future.”